The Complex Triangle: China’s Dilemma in North Korea Amid Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine

Due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, North Korea has become an increasingly important partner for Russia. This shift has left China with a tough decision to make – whether to accept it or push back.

In mid-April, Chinese leader Zhao Leji made a surprise visit to Pyongyang, sparking speculation that the trip was related to preparations for a summit between North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and China’s Xi Jinping. While details of the discussions were not disclosed, it is clear that Beijing is becoming more involved in North Korean affairs.

China has long been wary of North Korea’s growing ties with Russia, particularly as North Korea continues to supply weapons for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Beijing fears losing influence over its neighbor and is concerned that Russian President Putin’s promised return visit to North Korea could further solidify this relationship.

North Korea’s status as a self-proclaimed nuclear power and its declaration of South Korea as its main enemy only adds to the complexity of the situation. Kim Jong Un’s ability to trigger crises or wars is heightened by his alliances with both China and Russia. The dynamics of this alliance triangle are being reshaped by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, creating uncertainty about what comes next for North Korea.

Russia has played a significant role in enabling North Korea’s provocations, providing support in the form of food, energy supplies, and technical assistance. Despite international sanctions against North Korea, Russia has continued to work closely with its ally. This cooperation has allowed for greater military capabilities and economic growth on the part of North Korea, but it also raises concerns about nuclear proliferation and regional instability.

China’s relationship with North Korea is more nuanced than its relationship with other countries in the region. Beijing views North Korea as a strategic buffer against US troops stationed in South Korea, which gives it some leverage over Pyongyang’s behavior. However, China also recognizes the dangers posed by an unstable Korean Peninsula and is working behind the scenes to prevent a full-blown conflict from breaking out again.

The shifting geopolitical landscape influenced by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and alliances with both China and Russia will determine how