Oil Prices on Tumultuous Journey Despite Weakened Dollar and Geopolitical Risks

Crude prices have been on a rollercoaster ride this year, with prices climbing above $83 a barrel after earlier losses due to a weaker dollar that boosted commodities priced in the currency. However, the market sentiment was dampened by a US inflation measure, and oil markets are still searching for an equilibrium price due to the lack of significant geopolitical news or data releases.

The demand outlook for oil remains uncertain, with weakness seen in some refined products. Profit margins for converting crude oil into diesel in Asia are near their lowest level in almost a year, adding to the uncertainty surrounding future price movements. Despite supply cuts from OPEC+ and tensions in the Middle East, prices have retreated from recent highs as geopolitical risks have diminished. Options continue to show a bearish tilt toward puts, and the US Oil Fund, the largest oil exchange-traded fund, experienced its largest daily outflow on record.