The numbers: The U.S. main financial index fell 0.3% in February — the eleventh decline in a row — persevering with to sign an upcoming recession.

Economists polled by the Wall Avenue Journal had forecast a 0.4% drop.

The main financial index, also referred to as the LEI, is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to point out whether or not the financial system is getting higher or worse. The report is revealed by the nonprofit Convention Board.

Huge image: The financial system has slowed as a result of finish of pandemic stimulus and the consequences of excessive inflation, which has pressured the Federal Reserve to lift rates of interest.

Increased borrowing prices sometimes tame inflation, however at the price of weaker financial progress.

Though the main index has been signaling a recession for months, the financial system remains to be increasing. An enormous query is whether or not the newest banking disaster finally ends up changing into a tipping level. To this point, regulators seem to have contained the harm.

Key particulars: Eight of the ten indicators tracked by the Convention Board fell in February.

A measure of present financial situations, in the meantime, rose a scant 0.1% in February.

The so-called lagging index — a glance within the rearview mirror — additionally elevated by 0.1%.

Wanting forward: “The main financial index nonetheless factors to danger of recession within the U.S. financial system,” mentioned Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior supervisor of enterprise cycle indicators on the board.

“The newest monetary turmoil within the U.S. banking sector shouldn’t be mirrored within the LEI information however may have a damaging impression on the outlook if it persists,” she mentioned.

Market response: The Dow Jones Industrial Common
DJIA,
-1.18%
and S&P 500
SPX,
-1.09%
fell in Friday buying and selling amid nagging worries in regards to the U.S. monetary system after the failure of Silicon Valley Financial institution.