Surpassing Expectations: China’s Robust Economy Defies Weak Data

A worker is meticulously assembling intelligent machinery at a factory in Qingzhou, Weifang City, Shandong Province of China. This scene serves as a testament to China’s booming economy, as evidenced by the official data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on March 31, 2024.

The data revealed that China’s GDP grew by 5.3% compared to the same period in the previous year. This growth exceeded the 4.6% forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters and marked an acceleration from the 5.2% expansion seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China’s GDP grew by 1.6% in the first quarter, surpassing the 1.4% expected by the Reuters poll. This growth trajectory aligns with Beijing’s target of achieving around 5% growth in 2024.

Despite weak export and inflation data earlier in the month, Morgan Stanley revised its real GDP forecast for China to 4.8%, up from its initial projection of 4.2%. Despite this revision, economists continue to see signs of resilience in the Chinese economy.

Industrial output for March increased by only 4.5% year on year, falling short of expectations for a growth rate of 6%. Similarly, retail sales saw a disappointing growth rate of just over one percent year on year, below expectations for a more robust increase of four percent or more per annum. However, despite these setbacks, major cities have seen their unemployment rates decrease to an average level of five percent after several months of steady increases.

Following this latest report on economic performance