Unexpected Economic Growth in Russia: Defying Sanctions and Overcoming Challenges

Despite being in a state of war, Russia’s economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024, surpassing growth rates predicted for major advanced economies such as the US. This surprising forecast has validated President Putin’s claims that Russia has been able to withstand the effects of Western sanctions and trade restrictions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that this momentum will slow down in 2025, with Russia’s growth rate dropping to 1.8%.

Russia’s energy sector has remained resilient, with sustained exports of oil and commodities to major markets such as India and China. By avoiding the oil price cap set by G-7 countries, Russia has been able to continue exporting energy at strong levels. The country’s steadfastness against Western sanctions can be attributed in large part to its strong partnership with China. Trade between the two countries hit a record high of $240 billion last year, driven by China’s demand for essential Russian commodities that have been discounted due to the West’s reluctance to engage in trade with Russia.

Despite being in a state of war, high levels of investment and strong private consumption have propelled Russia’s economy forward. However, the IMF anticipates that this momentum will slow down in 2025, with Russia’s growth rate dropping to 1.8%. This forecast has surprised many in Western countries who had hoped that imposing sanctions on Russia would severely hinder its economy and put pressure on Putin’s government. Foreign companies are pulling out of Russia due to the war in Ukraine, but the government in Moscow has been seizing funds from these fleeing firms, with reports indicating they have taken $387 million as of mid-March.