Unclear Red Lines: China’s Probing of the Philippines and Its Implications for a Potential War

Despite previous encounters with China, Manila had been careful not to mention the treaty. According to American military-legal terms, China’s actions could be seen as a non-kinetic use of illegal force, even though the treaty’s definition of “armed attack” was unclear.

Despite this, Manila tried to ease tensions in order to prevent a potentially serious conflict after the incident on June 17. President Marcos emphasized that the Philippines did not want to start a war while speaking to troops in the South China Sea area.

China may view Manila’s cautious approach as favorable. By probing the “red line” between the US and the Philippines, Beijing gained valuable insights into Filipino actions and tactics. The incident on June 17 revealed Manila’s reluctance to escalate tensions and America’s hesitance to provide stronger support without invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty.

China also displayed its ability to disrupt Filipino activities and its superior escalation tactics. The stark capability difference between the two countries was evident when the Chinese coast guard vessel, weighing over 10,000 tonnes, was sent near the Sierra Madre outpost shortly after the conflict.