Russia’s Economic Resilience Thanks to the Return of Expatriates: A Look at the Impact of the War on Russian Emigration and Repatriation

Despite facing unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has seen significant growth thanks to the return of Russian expatriates. An estimated 1.1 million people left Russia in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, with 40% to 45% of them now having returned. These returnees are believed to have contributed between one-fifth and one-third of Russia’s 3.6% GDP growth in 2023.

Many Russians chose to come back home due to difficulties with renewing residence permits abroad and experiencing discrimination on a personal and institutional level, even in countries that are traditionally considered friendly to Russia and have not imposed sanctions on Moscow. This feeling of resentment and the belief that they were unwelcome in other countries have motivated many to return.

Russian propaganda has used the return of these expatriates as proof of widespread “Russophobia” in the West, according to political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. For President Putin, the return of Russian entrepreneurs and highly skilled workers is seen as a positive trend that supports his policies. The sense of insecurity among Russians abroad may continue to drive the repatriation process as the war continues.

In addition to those who left due to opposition to the war or fears of economic collapse, many Russians also migrated outward during two waves in 2022 – one initially after the invasion of Ukraine and the second during the announcement of a “partial” mobilization by the Kremlin. While Putin initially described this outflow as a necessary “cleansing of society,” his tone has since shifted to viewing those remaining abroad as a connection between Russia and its foreign partners.