Iran’s Nuclear Strategy on the Brink: Supreme Leader’s Threat Amid Conflicting Signals

During a recent statement, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Kamal Kharazi emphasized that Iran may need to adjust its nuclear doctrine if Israel poses a severe threat to the country’s survival. Kharazi clarified that while Iran has not yet made the decision to develop nuclear weapons, this stance may change in response to an existential threat. He warned that if Israel were to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, it could prompt a shift in Iran’s deterrence strategy.

General Ahmad Hajtalab of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who oversees nuclear development in the IRGC, also acknowledged the potential need to reassess Iran’s nuclear doctrine following a potential Israeli attack. Analysts suggest that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons and could become a nuclear power in the near future if the leadership decides to pursue this path. However, the final decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In April 2024, Iran launched its first independent attack on Israel, deploying numerous unmanned aerial vehicles, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. The majority of these weapons were intercepted and destroyed by Israeli defenses. Reports from Western media outlets indicated that Israel responded with a limited strike aimed at demonstrating force rather than causing significant harm to Iran. The incident underscored the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, highlighting the potential impact of these conflicts on Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

The conflict between Iran and Israel has been ongoing for many years now, with both countries accusing each other of supporting extremist groups in their respective regions. While some experts believe that a war between these two countries is unlikely in the near future, others fear that an escalation of tensions could lead to an accidental military action.

It is worth noting that since 2015, when Tehran reached a deal with world powers over its nuclear program, there have been concerns about whether or not Iran is complying with its commitments under the agreement. Some critics argue that Tehran has been enriching uranium beyond what is allowed under the agreement and building underground missile silos.

Given these concerns and tensions between Iran and Israel, it is likely that both countries will continue to maintain their stockpiles of conventional weapons as well as their plans for developing nuclear weapons if necessary. However, it remains unclear how much longer they will be able to avoid an all-out war or how much longer they will be able to hold off on pursuing their goals for becoming dominant powers in their respective regions.