The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a valuable tool for gaining insight into the direction of the economy. In October, the index fell, which has led many experts to predict a recession on the horizon. However, despite this decline, a recession has not yet occurred.
One reason for this is that consumer spending has remained much stronger than anticipated. According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board, while she still believes that a recession is likely to occur early next year, it is expected to be short and shallow. This is because there has been no significant decline in manufacturing or in the housing market.
U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics has also revised his forecasts based on recent data. He now believes that a soft landing is more likely and that unemployment will increase gradually over time. Martin added that he remains open to updating his forecasts if economic conditions continue to surprise him.
In light of these changes, Marketplace remains committed to providing accurate and accessible news that keeps people informed about what’s happening in the world of finance and economics. To continue doing so, we rely on financial support from our listeners and viewers. A small monthly donation can help us keep reporting on the news that matters most to you.