Croatia is just three points away from qualifying for the Euros, but they need to draw with Turkey in their final match to make it. If they win, they will qualify for the tournament and face Armenia in their last game. However, if Turkey wins, Croatia will not qualify and will have to participate in the play-offs.
Before the draw for additional qualifications on Thursday, there are still three unknowns that could impact Croatia’s chances of making it to the Euros. Uefa ranks national teams based on their performance in the qualifications, and the top five teams (Germany, Portugal, France, Spain, and Belgium) are considered superpowers. If the qualifications ended today, Croatia would be in a strong group with Scotland, Slovakia, and possibly Netherlands and Serbia.
If Hungary or Austria wins against Croatia or Wales respectively in their final matches against them then it may be difficult for Croatia as they won’t be able to play against them anymore. Similarly if Turkey wins against Wales then they will qualify for Euros but if they lose then Croatia will take their place in third round of qualifiers which may lead them to a tough draw.
The weakest group among the direct qualifiers is yet to be determined as three teams from play-offs are not known yet along with three runners-up with poor performance. With a win over Armenia Croatia can secure its spot in third round of qualifiers while with a draw or loss if they go to Euros then there is risk of ending up in fourth round which would have toughest draw yet.
Serbia is also facing tough competition from Slovenia and Czech Republic who are fighting for spots that would push Serbia into last round of qualifiers if at least two of these scenarios happen: Slovenia wins over Kazakhstan